4/5 stars
I like to think of myself as somewhat of trend-spotter, so I thought I’d check out Mark Penn’s book, Microtrends. I know my place after reading this.
Mark worked as a pollster for Bill Clinton and helped get Hillary the NY Senate seat in 2000, by identifying the now famous “Soccer Moms”. His book identifies 25 new trends which have reached the critical “1% threshold” (he believes) is required to bring change in the world. His main idea is that the modern world view requires a microscope, rather than a telescope to understand its workings. In order to what will make big changes, you have to look at the counter-forces which go against conventional wisdom. Some example trends he spots are “Sex Ratio Singles” (the increasing number of single women due to the difference between the number of gays and lesbians), “New Luddites” (people who stop using the Internet) and “Aspiring Snipers” (people who literally aspire to be snipers – mostly from playing too many video games, but also from a new world militant culture which is based on guerrilla style warfare).
I found this book really refreshing. First of all, I loved the optimistic and positive viewpoint the author had toward modern trends and the electorate. He believes that the electorate (all Americans really) are smarter, more informed and more intelligent than ever before. He also sees this time as one filled with more possibilities, choices and options than any other time – a period brimming over with creativity and expression. These options are what give rise to the microtrends, because people have more choices, they are making more choices, and living differently than ever before.
I also like the egalitarian conclusions drawn by “Impressionable Elites” (media and social elites are more concerned about the personality of poitical candidates than the issues) and “Shy Millionaires” (average people who save and live beneath their means, and who make up a large group of America’s millionaires). He mentions that “Shy Millionaires” may be one reason why class warfare hasn’t even worked in American politics – because “language directed at people who have worked hard to get where they are is a very unpredictable way to talk to American voters”. Anyone who carries a sliver of egalitarianism will savor those delectable bits.
But Penn’s way looking at the world in terms of microtrends can be a very myopic and “geeky” way to look at the world. The world view that big trends no longer matter can be just as bad as looking at the world too simply. In fact, in order to keep the book interesting, Penn ties together the chapters, relating each trend to the next in some way. I would say that the conquest of capitalism and the collapse of Communism in the 80’s (the Berlin wall), the decline of traditional sexual morality and the traditional family, the rationalist/materials world view and the Internet are all big trends worth examining in light of the smaller trends.
There’s also a deeper underlying problem. As expected from a pollster working for the Clinton campaigns, Penn doesn’t distinguish right from wrong – he’s a complete moral relativist. For the purposes of this book, it may not be needed anyway. But when in one place he gives terrorism the benefit of being rationally motivated, the reader wants to go beyond the numbers and venture into the truth. Sadly for Mr. Penn, he falls short in this area.
Overall, a very enjoyable and positive book though. I recommend it highly – particularly for people who see the future in gloomy terms only.
WARNING: read it fast and give it to a friend. Anything this trendy isn’t expected to have any sticking power in your library and will wind up in the yard sale in 5 years.
